Exploring Determinants of Population Ageing in Northeast China: From a Socio-Economic Perspective

Abstract

The paper aims to examine the population ageing process in northeast China, typically perceived as a region experiencing dramatic demographic change and socio-economic slowdown that is much deeper and more significant compared to other regions. Using the 2000 and 2010 census data at the sub-regional level, the SEM (spatial error model) estimation suggests that at least seven socio-economic factors are associated with the evolution of the ageing pattern in northeast China, including birth rate, mortality, education, healthcare conditions, the level of economic development, urbanization, and population mobility. However, these associations vary according to time and space, which are further confirmed by the geographical weighted regression (GWR). These findings imply that there are complicated and diversified factors which may be associated with the deteriorating population ageing at the local level in northeast China. Therefore, the sustainable development of the northeast region may not be delivered by dichotomous policy interventions, such as the control of birth rate or mortality rate, as many of the previous studies have focused on; instead, the implementation of ageing policy shall be consistent and complementary with the principles of social benefits, for example, providing incentives for improving regional economic structures, or by policies aimed at building up an adequate “tolerant culture” for slowing down population outflows.