Sea Level Rise and the Future of Tombolos: The Case of Greece

Abstract

Tombolos are ephemeral coastal landforms, which may form and disappear over short geological time periods. Thus, they are susceptible to marine processes. During the last decades, however, climate change and the subsequent sea level rise seems to have affected a large part of the world’s coastlines. Tombolos are particularly prone to the imminent sea level rise. Many tombolos globally may disappear in the coming decades. Our work aims to quantify the susceptibility of the tombolos along the Greek coastline in relationship to the sea level rise. We mapped all Greek tombolos and created an online (and public) geodata base. For each tombolo, we measured its primary physiographical characteristics (e.g., length and width), and also its height above sea level. Based on that, we applied two scenarios proposed by the IPCC concerning the future sea level rise (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5), in order to check to what extent the Greek tombolos may disappear or face extreme erosion in the next few decades. Our results indicate that more than half of the Greek tombolos will be fully flooded and disappear in 100 years even under the optimistic scenario. Even those that remain will still face severe erosion problems.