Hydrometeorological and Socio-Economic Impact Assessment of Stream Flooding in Southeast Mediterranean: The Case of Rafina Catchment (Attica, Greece)

Abstract

The CyFFORS (Cyprus Flood Forecasting System) project aims at increasing flood risk awareness and promoting preparedness against flooding by developing and validating a pilot flood forecasting system targeted over three river/stream basins in the Larnaca region, Cyprus, and Attica region, Greece. The present study demonstrates the analysis of flood-associated information, based on ground-based and ERA5 model reanalysis data, which is a necessary procedure prior to the development of the hydrometeorological modeling tool, in one of the study areas, namely in the Rafina catchment in Attica, Greece. The analysis focusses on 12 stream flood episodes that occurred in the period 2008–2014. The results show that most events were associated with a typical, for the study area, wet-season cyclonic activity. The detailed investigation of two case studies highlighted important spatiotemporal differences in the generation and development of rainfall, as well as in the flooding magnitude, which were related to specific characteristics of the synoptic-scale forcing, topography and soil moisture preconditioning. Moreover, highly correlated positive relationships were found between the observed maximum stream discharge and the duration and maximum total accumulation of precipitation. A strong positive correlation was also evident between the peak discharge and the flooding impacts, leading to the identification of preliminary discharge thresholds for impact-based warnings, which can be applied to the pilot CyFFORS forecasting system.