Spatiotemporal Dynamics and Spatial Spillover Effects of Resilience in China’s Agricultural Economy

Abstract

It is very important to enhance the risk resistance of the agricultural sector to realize the modernization transformation of the agricultural industry and strengthen the competitiveness of national agriculture. Based on the relevant spatial data of 30 provincial administrative regions in China from 2013 to 2022, this study constructs a multi-dimensional index framework to comprehensively evaluate the resilience of China’s agricultural economy by comprehensively considering the three key aspects of adaptability, management strategy, and innovation drive. This study adopts several quantitative analysis tools including the Theil index, global and local analysis of the Moran I index, and kernel density estimation (KDE), and further combines with the spatial Durbin model (SDM) to conduct an in-depth spatiotemporal analysis of the resilience of China’s agricultural economy. This study not only reveals the evolution trend of agricultural economic resilience in different times and spaces but also analyzes the differences in resilience among regions and its spread in space. Through these refined analytical tools, we aim to reveal how agricultural economic resilience changes over time, the differences in resilience levels among regions, and the geospatial interactions and diffusion. This study reveals a series of key findings: (1) The resilience of China’s agricultural economy shows a trend of steady improvement. (2) Differences within the three regions are the main factors generating differences in the development of resilience in China’s agricultural economy. (3) The resilience of the agricultural economy in different regions shows obvious spatial correlations. (4) Further analysis shows that the efficiency of agricultural production and the urbanization process have a positive direct impact on the resilience of the agricultural economy, and this impact has a significant positive spatial diffusion effect. Meanwhile, although the level of agricultural mechanization is not significant in its direct impact, it has a positive spatial impact on the enhancement of agricultural economic resilience in other regions. In addition, the restructuring of agricultural cropping has both direct negative impacts and positive spatial spillover effects on the resilience of the agricultural economy. Based on these findings, this paper suggests that agricultural policies should consider regional development differences, implement differentiated agricultural support policies, fully account for the spatial spillover effects of agricultural ecological efficiency, and strengthen the exchange and cooperation of resources between regions. This study deepens the understanding of the spatial and temporal characteristics of the resilience of China’s agricultural economy, reveals its inherent dynamic processes and spatial interactions, and provides valuable references for policymakers and practitioners to better cope with the various challenges encountered in agricultural production, and to jointly promote the sound development of China’s agricultural economy.