Workflow for Probabilistic Resource Estimation: Jafurah Basin Case Study (Saudi Arabia)

Abstract

This study provides a workflow and preliminary estimations of the estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) volumes for natural gas and condensate liquids in the Tuwaiq Mountain Formation, the principal target in the Jafurah Field development project in Saudi Arabia. The strategic need for the field development is reviewed and the field characteristics are outlined based on public data sources complemented with data from analogous reservoirs. The target zone in the Jafurah Basin is a carbonaceous shale, being developed with up to 10,000-ft-long multistage-fractured laterals with 30 ft perforation cluster spacing and an assumed typical 1250 ft well spacing. The field will come on stream in 2024, when the gas-gathering pipeline system, natural gas processing plant, and underground gas storage facilities will all be in place. The range of uncertainties in the key reservoir parameters is taken into account to estimate preliminary EUR volumes (P90, P50, and P10) for both gas and condensates. Based on the present and prior EUR estimations, it can be concluded that the Jafurah Basin comprises one of the largest unconventional field development projects outside of North America.