Tree Height Estimation of Chinese Fir Forests Based on Geographically Weighted Regression and Forest Survey Data

Abstract

Estimating tree height at the national to regional scale is crucial for assessing forest health and forest carbon storage and understanding forest ecosystem processes. It also aids in formulating forest management and restoration policies to mitigate global climate change. Extensive ground-survey data offer a valuable resource for estimating tree height. In tree height estimation modeling, a few comparative studies have examined the effectiveness of global-based versus local-based models, and the spatial heterogeneity of independent variable parameters remains insufficiently explored. This study utilized ~200,000 ground-survey data points covering the entire provincial region to compare the performance of the global-based Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Random Forest (RF) model, as well as local-based Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) model, for predicting the average tree height of Chinese fir forests in Zhejiang Province China. The results showed that the GWR model outperformed both OLS and RF in terms of predictive accuracy, achieving an R-squared (R2) and adjusted R2 of 0.81 and MAE and RMSE of 0.93 and 1.28, respectively. The performance indicated that the local-based GWR held advantages over global-based models, especially in revealing the spatial non-stationarity of forests. Visualization of parameter estimates across independent variables revealed spatial non-stationarity in their impact effects. In mountainous areas with dense forest coverage, the parameter estimates for average age were notably higher, whereas in forests proximate to urban areas, the parameters were comparatively lower. This study demonstrates the effectiveness of large ground-survey data and GWR in tree height estimation modeling at a provincial scale.