Spatiotemporal Analysis of Food Production–Demand Mismatch in China and Implications for Agricultural Structural Adjustment

Abstract

Based on the food equivalent unit (FEU), this article analyzed Chinese food consumption patterns, spatial mismatch, and production potential to explore agricultural reform strategies. Assessing production–demand mismatch involved the spatial mismatch model, drawing data from statistical yearbooks. Calculations of food production potential utilized the CASA model and the Thornthwaite Memorial model, with net primary productivity (NPP) derived from remote sensing data as indicators. The results showed that livestock product consumption is on the rise, and the spatial mismatch index for herbivorous livestock products was the largest, ranging from 22.81 to 98.12 in 2019. The mismatched degree distribution of rations and food-consuming livestock products showed a trend of increasing on both sides, with the Hu Huanyong line as the center line. Production factors played a predominant role in food production-to-demand mismatch. Climatic productivity and actual productivity decreased from the southeast to northwest in space in 2019, and human activities significantly impacted productivity. When grassland agriculture is pursued as the adjustment orientation, the production potential can reach up to 4540.76 × 107 kg·FEU. Moreover, a grassland agriculture plan was devised, prioritizing its development in the developed southern regions.