Modeling Wind-Speed Statistics beyond the Weibull Distribution

Abstract

While it is well known that the Weibull distribution is a good model for wind-speed measurements and can be explained through simple statistical arguments, how such a model holds for shorter time periods is still an open question. In this paper, we present a systematic investigation of the accuracy of the Weibull distribution to wind-speed measurements, in comparison with other possible “cousin” distributions. In particular, we show that the Gaussian distribution enables one to predict wind-speed histograms with higher accuracy than the Weibull distribution. Two other good candidates are the Nakagami and the Rice distributions, which can be interpreted as particular cases of the Weibull distribution for particular choices of the shape and scale parameters. These findings hold not only when predicting next-point values of the wind speed but also when predicting the wind energy values. Finally, we discuss such findings in the context of wind power forecasting and monitoring for power-grid assessment.