Machine Learning Classification of Time since BNT162b2 COVID-19 Vaccination Based on Array-Measured Antibody Activity

Abstract

Vaccines trigger an immunological response that includes B and T cells, with B cells producing antibodies. SARS-CoV-2 immunity weakens over time after vaccination. Discovering key changes in antigen-reactive antibodies over time after vaccination could help improve vaccine efficiency. In this study, we collected data on blood antibody levels in a cohort of healthcare workers vaccinated for COVID-19 and obtained 73 antigens in samples from four groups according to the duration after vaccination, including 104 unvaccinated healthcare workers, 534 healthcare workers within 60 days after vaccination, 594 healthcare workers between 60 and 180 days after vaccination, and 141 healthcare workers over 180 days after vaccination. Our work was a reanalysis of the data originally collected at Irvine University. This data was obtained in Orange County, California, USA, with the collection process commencing in December 2020. British variant (B.1.1.7), South African variant (B.1.351), and Brazilian/Japanese variant (P.1) were the most prevalent strains during the sampling period. An efficient machine learning based framework containing four feature selection methods (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator, light gradient boosting machine, Monte Carlo feature selection, and maximum relevance minimum redundancy) and four classification algorithms (decision tree, k-nearest neighbor, random forest, and support vector machine) was designed to select essential antibodies against specific antigens. Several efficient classifiers with a weighted F1 value around 0.75 were constructed. The antigen microarray used for identifying antibody levels in the coronavirus features ten distinct SARS-CoV-2 antigens, comprising various segments of both nucleocapsid protein (NP) and spike protein (S). This study revealed that S1 + S2, S1.mFcTag, S1.HisTag, S1, S2, Spike.RBD.His.Bac, Spike.RBD.rFc, and S1.RBD.mFc were most highly ranked among all features, where S1 and S2 are the subunits of Spike, and the suffixes represent the tagging information of different recombinant proteins. Meanwhile, the classification rules were obtained from the optimal decision tree to explain quantitatively the roles of antigens in the classification. This study identified antibodies associated with decreased clinical immunity based on populations with different time spans after vaccination. These antibodies have important implications for maintaining long-term immunity to SARS-CoV-2.