Early Diagnosis of Atrial Fibrillation and Stroke Incidence in Primary Care: Translating Measurements into Actions—A Retrospective Cohort Study

Abstract

(1) Background: AF-related strokes will triple by 2060, are associated with an increased risk of cognitive decline, and alone or in combination, will be one of the main health and economic burdens on the European population. The main goal of this paper is to describe the incidence of new AF associated with stroke, cognitive decline and mortality among people at high risk for AF. (2) Methods: Multicenter, observational, retrospective, community-based studies were conducted from 1 January 2015 to 31 December 2021. The setting was primary care centers. A total of 40,297 people aged ≥65 years without previous AF or stroke were stratified by AFrisk at 5 years. The main measurements were the overall incidence density/1000 person-years (CI95%) of AF and stroke, prevalence of cognitive decline, and Kaplan–Meier curve. (3) Results: In total, 46.4% women, 77.65 ± 8.46 years old on average showed anAF incidence of 9.9/103/year (CI95% 9.5–10.3), associated with a four-fold higher risk of stroke (CI95% 3.4–4.7), cognitive impairment(OR 1.34 (CI95% 1.1–1.5)), and all-cause mortality (OR 1.14 (CI95% 1.0–1.2)), but there was no significant difference in ischemic heart disease, chronic kidney disease, or peripheral arteriopathy. Unknown AF was diagnosed in 9.4% and of these patients, 21.1% were diagnosed with new stroke. (4) Conclusions: The patients at high AF risk (Q4th) already had an increased cardiovascular risk before they were diagnosed with AF.