Changes in Population Exposure to Rainstorm Waterlogging for Different Return Periods in the Xiong’an New Area, China
Author:
Chen Jiani1, Wang Yanjun1, Chen Ziyan1, Si Lili234, Liu Qingying1, Jiang Tong1
Affiliation:
1. Collaboration Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Institute for Disaster Risk Management, School of Geographical Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China 2. Key Laboratory of Meteorology and Ecological Environment of Hebei Province, Shijiazhuang 050021, China 3. Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Environment Meteorology Center of Hebei Province, Shijiazhuang 050021, China 4. China Meteorological Administration Xiong’an Atmospheric Boundary Layer Key Laboratory, Xiong’an New Area 071800, China
Abstract
In the context of global climate change and urban expansion, urban residents are encountering greater rainstorm waterlogging risk. Quantifying population exposure to rainstorms is an important component of rainstorm waterlogging risk assessments. This study utilized a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model to simulate the inundation water depth and inundation area resulting from rainstorms, with return periods of 5, 10, 50, and 100 years, in the Xiong’an New Area, and overlaid the gridded population data in 2017 and in 2035 under SSP2 to assess the change in population exposure. The results show that the average inundation depth and area increase were from 0.11 m and 207.9 km2 to 0.18 m and 667.2 km2 as the rainstorm return period increased from once in 5 years to once in 100 years. The greatest water depths in the main urban areas were mainly located in the low-lying areas along the Daqing River. The total population exposed to rainstorm waterlogging for the 5-, 10-, 50-, and 100-year return periods was 0.31, 0.37, 0.50, and 0.53 million, respectively, in 2017. However, this is projected to rise significantly by 2035 under SSP2, increasing 2–4-fold compared with that in 2017 for the four return periods. Specifically, the projected population exposure is expected to be 0.7, 1.0, 1.8, and 2.0 million, respectively. The longer the return period, the greater the increase in population exposure. The proportion of the population exposed at the 0.05–0.2 m water depth to the total population exposure decreases as the return periods increases, whereas the proportion changes in the opposite direction at the 0.2–0.6 m and >0.6 m depth intervals. Spatially, high-exposure areas are concentrated in densely populated main urban regions in the Xiong’an New Area. In the future, more attention should be paid to densely populated low-lying areas and extreme recurrence rainstorm events for urban flood-risk management to ensure population safety and sustainable urban development.
Funder
Key Project of Hebei Province’s 13th Five-Year Plan
Subject
Water Science and Technology,Aquatic Science,Geography, Planning and Development,Biochemistry
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