Anthropogenic Risk to Poisonous Species in Mexico

Abstract

In recent years, the morbidity and mortality rates caused by stings and bites of poisonous species have been constant in Mexico; such a phenomenon has been emphasized due to the dominance or modification of the natural geosystem. The modification in the availability of water resources has caused changes in the climate, extreme droughts, and floods that influence the distribution of species, generating risks where they did not occur before. With the aforementioned, it is important to identify risky points through the development of new cartography in the country, which allows an analysis from a spatial and geostatistical perspective. Based on the number of victims of stings or bites, there will be a sharp increase in exposure to poisonous animals where the distribution of these species overlaps with areas of high vulnerability as well as social and natural contact in Mexico. The aim of this study is to model the anthropogenic risk of poisonous species in Mexico in a spatial way (data from 2010–2017). The spatial analyses of this study were carried out throughout the Mexican territory and focused on species such as coral snakes, rattlesnakes, scorpions, and centipedes. The variables of vulnerability, danger, and exposure were considered to create a generalized risk model using the core area alternative in the zonation program, allowing a spatial analysis. The methodology consisted of six stages: (1) the identification of threats and records collected from chosen poisonous animals; (2) obtaining risk models by using the Zonation software that summarized all the species distribution modeling (SDM); (3) the development of a general anthropogenic vulnerability indicator; (4) obtaining the general exposure model with the index of accessibility to medical services; (5) obtaining risk models; and (6) the validation of risk models with morbidity and mortality rates by obtaining geostatistical models. The highlighted risk areas are the Pacific Ocean coast from Southern Sinaloa to the border of Michoacán, a corridor from central Veracruz to northern Oaxaca, central Guerrero, northern Michoacán, and northwestern Nuevo León.