Climate Change and Its Positive and Negative Impacts on Irrigated Corn Yields in a Region of Colorado (USA)

Abstract

The future of humanity depends on successfully adapting key cropping systems for food security, such as corn (Zea mays L.), to global climatic changes, including changing air temperatures. We monitored the effects of climate change on harvested yields using long-term research plots that were established in 2001 near Fort Collins, Colorado, and long-term average yields in the region (county). We found that the average temperature for the growing period of the irrigated corn (May to September) has increased at a rate of 0.023 °C yr−1, going from 16.5 °C in 1900 to 19.2 °C in 2019 (p < 0.001), but precipitation did not change (p = 0.897). Average minimum (p < 0.001) temperatures were positive predictors of yields. This response to temperature depended on N fertilizer rates, with the greatest response at intermediate fertilizer rates. Maximum (p < 0.05) temperatures and growing degree days (GDD; p < 0.01) were also positive predictors of yields. We propose that the yield increases with higher temperatures observed here are likely only applicable to irrigated corn and that irrigation is a good climate change mitigation and adaptation practice. However, since pan evaporation significantly increased from 1949 to 2019 (p < 0.001), the region’s dryland corn yields are expected to decrease in the future from heat and water stress associated with increasing temperatures and no increases in precipitation. This study shows that increases in GDD and the minimum temperatures that are contributing to a changing climate in the area are important parameters that are contributing to higher yields in irrigated systems in this region.