Adaptive Difference Least Squares Support Vector Regression for Urban Road Collapse Timing Prediction

Abstract

The accurate prediction of urban road collapses is of paramount importance for public safety and infrastructure management. However, the complex and variable nature of road subsidence mechanisms, coupled with the inherent noise and non-stationarity in the data, poses significant challenges to the development of precise and real-time prediction models. To address these challenges, this paper develops an Adaptive Difference Least Squares Support Vector Regression (AD-LSSVR) model. The AD-LSSVR model employs a difference transformation to process the input and output data, effectively reducing noise and enhancing model stability. This transformation extracts trends and features from the data, leveraging the symmetrical characteristics inherent within it. Additionally, the model parameters were optimized using grid search and cross-validation techniques, which systematically explore the parameter space and evaluate model performance of multiple subsets of data, ensuring both precision and generalizability of the selected parameters. Moreover, a sliding window method was employed to address data sparsity and anomalies, ensuring the robustness and adaptability of the model. The experimental results demonstrate the superior adaptability and precision of the AD-LSSVR model in predicting road collapse timing, highlighting its effectiveness in handling the complex nonlinear data.