Characteristics of Changes in Livestock Numbers and Densities in the Selinco Region of the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau from 1990 to 2020

Abstract

A thorough understanding of the development process of grazing activities and an elucidation of their complex mechanisms are crucial for the formulation and adjustment of livestock management policies. In the Selinco region of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, we conducted a comprehensive analysis of year-end livestock numbers and densities over the past 30 years. The results indicate a gradual decline in overall livestock numbers in the Selinco region during this period, with a notable decrease between 2004 and 2014, followed by stabilization. Notably, the number of yaks has significantly increased, whereas the numbers of sheep, goats, and horses have markedly decreased. Regarding livestock density, there is a spatial pattern of decrease from northwest to southeast, with the density order being Seni District > Bange County > Anduo County > Shenzha County > Nima County > Shuanghu County. Between 2004 and 2014, most counties experienced a significant decline in livestock density, exhibiting a trough–peak pattern. However, after 2014, a complex spatiotemporal dynamic emerged. Concerning driving factors, from 1990 to 2004, rural population and economic development were the primary influences on livestock density. After 2004, forage–livestock balance management policies, snowstorms, and fluctuations in livestock prices likely became the main influencing factors. Further detailed analysis of these factors is essential for developing more effective management strategies.