Forest Fire Prediction: A Spatial Machine Learning and Neural Network Approach

Abstract

The study of forest fire prediction holds significant environmental and scientific importance, particularly in regions like South Carolina (SC) with a high incidence rate of forest fires. Despite the limited existing research on forest fires in this area, the application of machine learning and neural network techniques presents an opportunity to enhance forest fire prevention and control efforts. Utilizing data of forest fire from the SC Forestry Commission for the year 2023, prediction models were developed incorporating various factors such as meteorology, terrain, vegetation, and infrastructure—key drivers of forest fires in SC. Feature importance analysis was employed to construct the final fire prediction model using different machine learning and neural network approaches including Decision Tree (DT), Random Forest (RF), Logistic Regression (LR), Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Support Vector Machine (SVM), and Convolutional Neural Network (CNN). Correlation coefficients analysis was employed to construct the final fire hazard map using a correlation test. The evaluation of predictive performance based on accuracy scores revealed that the DT model achieved the highest accuracy of 90.58%, surpassing other models. However, based on the kernel density map of the fire data from 2000 to 2023, the correlation test gave the better fire hazard map compared to any other machine learning or neural network approach that utilized feature importance. Nonetheless, all models achieved prediction accuracies exceeding 80%. This finding directed us to the approach based on the correlation coefficients rather than to those just based on feature importance. The overlap between fire locations and carbon hotspots provided the immediate need to mitigate the carbon loss due to fire in those locations. These results serve as a valuable resource for forest fire prediction in SC, demonstrating the efficacy of the correlation test, providing a theoretical foundation and data support for future forestry applications in the region, and showing the outperforming capability of this method compared to other approaches based on feature importance and the importance to prioritize areas to mitigate the climate change impact based upon fire prediction.