Short-Term Load Forecasting Method Based on Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory Model with Stochastic Weight Averaging Algorithm

Abstract

To accommodate the rapid development of the distribution network of China, it is essential to research load forecasting methods with higher accuracy and stronger generalization capabilities in order to optimize distribution system control strategies, ensure the efficient and reliable operation of the power system, and provide a stable power supply to users. In this paper, a short-term load forecasting method is proposed for low-voltage distribution substations based on the bidirectional long short-term memory (BiLSTM) model. First, principal component analysis (PCA) and the fuzzy C-means method based on a genetic algorithm (GA-FCM) are used to extract the main influencing factors and classify different types of user electricity consumption behaviors. Then, the BiLSTM forecasting model utilizing the stochastic weight averaging (SWA) algorithm to enhance generalization capability is constructed. Finally, the load data from a low-voltage distribution substation in China over recent years are selected as a case study. Compared with conventional LSTM and BiLSTM prediction models, the annual electricity load curves for various user types forecasted by the PCA-BiLSTM model are more closely aligned with actual data curves. The proposed BiLSTM forecasting model exhibits higher accuracy and can forecast user electricity consumption data that more accurately reflect real-life usage.