Analysis of the Performance and Accuracy of a PSA and PSA Ratio-Based Nomogram to Predict the Probability of Prostate Cancer in a Cohort of Patients with PIRADS 3 Findings at Multiparametric Magnetic Resonance Imaging

Abstract

Background: PIRADS score 3 represents a challenge in prostate cancer (PCa) detection with MRI. Our study aimed to evaluate the application of a nomogram on a cohort of patients with PIRADS 3. Methods: We analyzed 286 patients undergoing fusion prostate biopsy from January 2020 to February 2024. Only PIRADS 3 patients were included. Two nomograms, previously developed and based on clinical variables such as age, total PSA (specifically 2–10 ng/mL) and PSA ratio were applied to estimate the probability (Nomograms A and B) for PCa Grade Group (GG) > 3 and GG < 3. Results: Out of the 70 patients available for analysis, 14/70 patients (20%) had PCa, 4/14 were GG 1 (28.6%), 1/14 were GG 2 (7.1%), 5/14 were GG 3 (35.8%), 2/14 were GG 4 (14.3%) and 2/14 were GG 5 (14.3%). The median probability of PCa GG > 3 and GG < 3 was 5% and 33%, respectively. A significant difference (p = 0.033) was found between patients with negative versus positive biopsy for Nomogram B. There was a significant difference (p = 0.029) for Nomogram B comparing patients with GG < 3 and GG > 3. Using a cut-off of 40% for Nomogram B, sensitivity and specificity were 70% and 80%, respectively. Conclusions: This cohort has a low probability of harboring PCa especially ISUP > 3. Nomogram B has good accuracy for discriminating patients with PCa from those with negative biopsy.