Development and Validation of an Explainable Radiomics Model to Predict High-Aggressive Prostate Cancer: A Multicenter Radiomics Study Based on Biparametric MRI

Abstract

In the last years, several studies demonstrated that low-aggressive (Grade Group (GG) ≤ 2) and high-aggressive (GG ≥ 3) prostate cancers (PCas) have different prognoses and mortality. Therefore, the aim of this study was to develop and externally validate a radiomic model to noninvasively classify low-aggressive and high-aggressive PCas based on biparametric magnetic resonance imaging (bpMRI). To this end, 283 patients were retrospectively enrolled from four centers. Features were extracted from apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) maps and T2-weighted (T2w) sequences. A cross-validation (CV) strategy was adopted to assess the robustness of several classifiers using two out of the four centers. Then, the best classifier was externally validated using the other two centers. An explanation for the final radiomics signature was provided through Shapley additive explanation (SHAP) values and partial dependence plots (PDP). The best combination was a naïve Bayes classifier trained with ten features that reached promising results, i.e., an area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) of 0.75 and 0.73 in the construction and external validation set, respectively. The findings of our work suggest that our radiomics model could help distinguish between low- and high-aggressive PCa. This noninvasive approach, if further validated and integrated into a clinical decision support system able to automatically detect PCa, could help clinicians managing men with suspicion of PCa.