Tumor Growth Rate Decline despite Progressive Disease May Predict Improved Nivolumab Treatment Outcome in mRCC: When RECIST Is Not Enough

Abstract

Treatment response is usually assessed by the response evaluation criteria in solid tumors (RECIST). These criteria may not be adequate to evaluate the response to immunotherapy, considering the peculiar patterns of response reported with this therapy. With the advent of immunotherapy these criteria have been modified to include the evaluation of the peculiar responses seen with this type of therapy (iRECIST criteria), including pseudoprogressions and hyperprogressions. Tumor growth rate (TGR) is a dynamic evaluation that takes into account the kinetics of response to treatment and may help catch the real efficacy of an immunotherapy approach. We performed a retrospective monocentric study to explore the impact of TGR change after nivolumab administration as the second or later line of treatment in patients with metastatic renal cell carcinoma (RCC). We evaluated 27 patients, divided into three categories: Disease control (DC) if there was no PD; lower velocity PD (LvPD) if disease progressed but the TGR at second assessment (TGR2) was lower than the TGR at first assessment (TGR1); higher velocity PD (HvPD) if TGR2 was higher than TGR1. The median OS for the DC group was 11.0 months (95% CI 5.0–17.0) (reference) vs. (not reached) NR (95% CI NR-NR) for LvPD (HR 0.27; 95% CI 0.06–1.30; p 0.102) vs. NR (95% CI NR–NR) for HvPD (HR 0.23; 95% CI 0.06–0.88; p 0.032). There was no difference between LvPD and DC (HR 1.21; 95% CI 0.20–7.28; p 0.838). In patients with metastatic RCC, the second or later line of nivolumab treatment may lead to a deceleration in TGR resulting in an improved survival outcome similar to that observed in patients experiencing tumor regression. In this subgroup, especially in the presence of a clinical benefit, continuing the treatment beyond progression can be recommended.