Probabilistic Analysis of Green Hydrogen Production from a Mix of Solar and Wind Energy

Abstract

This article describes an example of using the measurement data from photovoltaic systems and wind turbines to perform practical probabilistic calculations around green hydrogen generation. First, the power generated in one month by a ground-mounted photovoltaic system with a peak power of 3 MWp is described. Using the Metalog family of probability distributions, the probability of generating selected power levels corresponding to the amount of green hydrogen produced is calculated. Identical calculations are performed for the simulation data, allowing us to determine the power produced by a wind turbine with a maximum power of 3.45 MW. After interpolating both time series of the power generated by the renewable energy sources to a common sampling time, they are summed. For the sum of the power produced by the photovoltaic system and the wind turbine, the probability of generating selected power levels corresponding to the amount of green hydrogen produced is again calculated. The presented calculations allow us to determine, with probability distribution accuracy, the amount of hydrogen generated from the energy sources constituting a mix of photovoltaics and wind. The green hydrogen production model includes the hardware and the geographic context. It can be used to determine the preliminary assumptions related to the production of large amounts of green hydrogen in selected locations. The calculations presented in this article are a practical example of Business Intelligence.