How Far Are We from the Planetary Health Diet? A Threshold Regression Analysis of Global Diets

Abstract

Global diets and food system not only influence human health conditions but also have a great effect on environmental sustainability. The Planetary Health Diet (PHD) proposed by the Lancet Commission is considered as a sustainable diet that meets human’s nutritional demands yet poses less pressure on the environment. In this study, we examine how the economic condition, i.e., Gross Domestic Product per capita (GDP per capita), affects the deviations of current diets from the PHD at the country level by using a threshold regression model. The results show three dimensions regarding food consumption patterns in all 11 kinds of foods across the globe, as evidenced from the data in 147 countries as of 2018. First, the findings indicate that there exist deviations from the PHD for all kinds of foods, which could guide policymakers to make dietary improvements. Second, we find that GDP per capita impacts food consumption patterns with all kinds of foods. The results demonstrate that the changing rates of food consumption amounts decrease as the GDP per capita increases. Finally, we calculate the GDP per capita thresholds for all kinds of foods, and we find the number of thresholds ranging from zero to two. Specifically, 20,000 PPP (current international $), the GDP per capita boundary distinguishing developing and developed countries, is the first GDP per capita threshold influencing the food consumption amount. What is more, the second GDP threshold is 40,000 PPP (current international $), which is the average GDP per capita of developed countries. Thus, we identify the countries that require more financial assistance from a GDP per capita perspective.