Forecasting of Turkey's electricity generation and CO2 emissions in estimating capacity factor

Abstract

In this study, Turkey's electricity generation between 2017 and 2021 is forecasted. To achieve this, past data of capacity factor of thermal, hydro, geothermal, wind, and solar power plants from 2006 to 2016 is correlated by using exponentially damped sinusoidal approximation. Estimated installed capacity values of electricity generation from 2017 to 2021 are taken from Turkish Electricity Transmission Company (TEİAŞ). The capacity factor and electricity generation of each power plants are forecasted from 2017 to 2021 for two different scenarios which are based on TEİAŞ's 5‐year installed capacity projection. According to scenario 1 and 2, Turkey's electricity generation is projected in the range of 332.5–362.9 TWh and 322.0–345.2 TWh, respectively. Additionally, projected CO2 emissions due to electricity generation are estimated in the range of 178.7–199.2 million tons and 171.6–187.1 million tons for the Scenario 1 and Scenario 2, respectively. Also, this study is compared with Turkey's vision 2023 electricity generation targets. © 2018 American Institute of Chemical Engineers Environ Prog, 38: 56–65, 2019