Affiliation:
1. Research Department of Internal Medicine Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran
2. Prevention of Metabolic Disorders Research Center, Research Institute for Endocrine Sciences Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran
3. Chronic Respiratory Disease Research Center, National Research Institute of Tuberculosis and Lung Diseases, Masih Daneshvari Hospital Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran
4. Mycobacteriology Research Center, National Research Institute of Tuberculosis and Lung Disease Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran
Abstract
AbstractBackground and AimThe efficacy of Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score as predictor of clinical outcomes among ICU‐admitted COVID‐19 patients is still controversial. We aimed to assess whether SOFA‐score in different time intervals could predict 28‐day mortality compared with other well‐acknowledged risk factors of COVID‐19 mortality.MethodsThis observational prospective cohort was conducted on 1057 patients from March 2020 to March 2022 at Masih Daneshvari Hospital, Iran. The univariate and multivariate Cox proportional analysis were performed to assess the hazards of SOFA‐score models. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were designed to estimate the predictive values.ResultsMean SOFA‐score during first 96 h (HR: 3.82 [CI: 2.75–5.31]), highest SOFA‐score (HR: 2.70 [CI: 1.93–3.78]), and initial SOFA‐score (HR: 1.65 [CI: 1.30–2.11]) had strongest association with 28‐day mortality (p < .0001). In contrast, SOFA scores at 48 and 96 h as well as Δ‐SOFA: 48‐0 h and Δ‐SOFA: 96‐0 h did not show significant correlations. Among them, merely mean SOFA‐score (HR: 2.28 [CI: 2.21–3.51]; p < .001) remained as independent prognosticator on multivariate regression analysis; though having less odds of predicting value compared with age (HR: 3.81 [CI: 1.98–5.21]), hypertension (HR: 3.11 [CI: 1.26–3.81]), coronary artery disease [CAD] (HR: 2.82 [CI: 1.51–4.8]), and diabetes mellitus (HR: 2.45 [CI: 1.36–2.99]). The area under ROC (AUROC) for mean SOFA‐score (0.77) and highest SOFA‐score (0.71) were larger than other SOFA intervals. Calculating the first 96 h of SOFA trends, it was obtained that fatality rate was <12.3% if the score dropped, between 28.8% and 46.29% if the score remained unchanged, and >50.45% if the score increased.ConclusionTo predict the 28‐day mortality among ICU‐admitted COVID‐19 patients, mean SOFA upon first 96 h of ICU stay is reliable; while having inadequate accuracy comparing with well‐acknowledged COVID‐19 mortality predictors (age, diabetes mellitus, hypertension, CAD). Notably, increased SOFA levels in the course of first 96 h of ICU‐admission, prognosticate at least 50% fatality regardless of initial SOFA score.
Funder
Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences