Development and Validation of a Novel Nomogram to Predict the Risk of Intervertebral Disc Degeneration

Abstract

Intervertebral disc degeneration (IVDD) has been a complex disorder resulted from genetic and environmental risk factors. The aim of this study was to identify the risk factors associated with IVDD in orthopaedic patients and develop a prediction model for predicting the risk of IVDD. A total of 309 patients were retrospectively included in the study and randomly divided into the training group and the validation group. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression (LASSO) and the univariate logistic regression analysis were used to optimize factors selection for the IVDD risk model. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to establish a predicting nomogram model incorporating the factors. In addition, discrimination, calibration, and clinical usefulness of the nomogram model were evaluated via the C-index, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration plot, and decision curve analysis (DCA). Then, based on the results above, the relationship between IVDD and angiotensin II (AngII) level in peripheral blood was examined prospectively. The predictors of the nomogram include age, sex, hypertension, diabetes, gout, working posture, and exercising hours per week. The $C$ -index values of the training and validation groups were 0.916 (95% CI, 0.876-0.956) and 0.949 (95% CI, 0.909-0.989), respectively, which indicated that the model displayed good discrimination. In addition, the area under the curve (AUC) values of the ROC curve of the training and the validation group were 0.815 (95% CI, 0.759-0.870) and 0.805 (95% CI, 0.718-0.892), respectively, revealing the satisfactory discrimination performance of the model. The prospective investigation showed that the average AngII level in the degenerated group ( $97.62\pm 44.02$  pg/mL) was significantly higher than that in the nondegenerated group ( $52.91\pm 9.01$  pg/mL) ( $p<0.001$ ). This present study explored the risk factors for IVDD and established a prediction model, which would effectively predict the risk of IVDD. In addition, based on the prediction model, AngII was revealed to be a potentially auxiliary clinical diagnostic marker for IVDD.