Abstract
Despite the presence of individual differences in the depressive symptom change in adults during the COVID‐19 pandemic, most studies have investigated population‐level changes in depression during the first year of the pandemic. This longitudinal repeated‐measurement study obtained 39,259 observations from 4,361 adults assessed nine times over a 24‐month period in Norway (March 2020 to March 2022). Using a Latent Change Score Mixture Model to investigate differential change patterns in depressive symptoms, five profiles were identified. Most adults revealed a consistently resilient (42.52%) or predominantly resilient pattern differentiated by an initial shock in symptomatology (13.17%). Another group exhibited consistently high depressive adversities (8.5%). One group showed mild deterioration with small increases in depressive symptomatology compared to onset levels (29.04%), and a second strong deterioration group exhibited clinically severe levels of gained symptoms over time (6.77%). Both deteriorating depressive symptom change patterns predicted the presence of a psychiatric diagnosis and treatment seeking at the end of the study period. Together, the absence of a preexisting psychiatric diagnosis at the onset of the pandemic and severe symptom increases during, combined with reports of psychiatric treatment seeking and diagnosis at the end of the study period, indicated that the strongly deteriorating subgroup represents an additional and newly emerged group of adults struggling with depressive problems. Factors related to general adverse change (lower education levels, lone residence), initial shocks prior to recovery (frequent information seeking, financial and occupational concerns), and resilience and recovery (older age, being in a relationship, physical activity) were identified. Binge drinking and belonging to an ethnic minority were influential predictors of the strongly deteriorating group. All major change patterns in depressive symptoms occurred during the first 3 months of the pandemic, suggesting this period represents a window of sensitivity for the development of long‐lasting depressive states versus patterns of recovery and resilience. These findings call for increased vigilance of psychiatric symptoms during the initial phases of infectious disease outbreaks and highlight a specific target period for the implementation of preventive measures.