Development and Validation of a Nomogram Model for Predicting the Risk of Readmission in Patients with Heart Failure with Reduced Ejection Fraction within 1 Year

Abstract

The high incidence of readmission for patients with reduced ejection fraction heart failure (HFrEF) can seriously affect the prognosis. In this study, we aimed to build a simple predictive model to predict the risk of heart failure (HF) readmission in patients with HFrEF within one year of discharge from the hospital. This retrospective study enrolled patients with HFrEF evaluated in the Heart Failure Center of the Affiliated Hospital of Xuzhou Medical University from January 2018 to December 2020. The patients were allocated into the readmission or nonreadmission group, according to whether HF readmission occurred within 1 year of hospital discharge. Subsequently, all patients were randomly divided into training and validation sets in a 7 : 3 ratio. A nomogram was established according to the results of univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis. Finally, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC), calibration plot, and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to validate the nomogram. Independent risk factors for HF readmission of patients with HFrEF within 1 year of hospital discharge were as follows: age, body mass index, systolic blood pressure, diabetes mellitus, left ventricular ejection fraction, and angiotensin receptor-neprilysin inhibitors. The AUC-ROC of the training and validation sets were 0.833 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.793-0.866) and 0.794 (95% CI: 0.727-0.852), respectively, which have an excellent distinguishing ability. The predicted and observed values of the calibration curve also showed good consistency. DCA also confirmed that the nomogram had good clinical value. In conclusion, we constructed an accurate and straightforward nomogram model for predicting the 1-year HF readmission risk in patients with HFrEF. This nomogram can guide early clinical intervention and improve patient prognosis.