Development and Verification of Prognostic Nomogram for Penile Cancer Based on the SEER Database

Abstract

Aim. We aimed to establish a prognostic nomogram for penile cancer (PC) patients based on the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program (SEER) database. Methods. Data from 1643 patients between 2010 and 2015 were downloaded and extracted from the SEER database. They were randomly divided into the development group (70%) and the verification group (30%), and then, univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression, respectively, was used to explore the possible risk factors of PC. The factors significantly related to overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) were used to establish the nomogram, which was assessed via the concordance index (C-index), receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, and calibration curve. An internal validation was conducted to test the accuracy and effectiveness of the nomogram. Kaplan–Meier calculation was used to predict the further OS and CSS status of these patients. Results. On multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression, the independent prognostic risk factors associated with OS were age, race, marital status, N/M stage, surgery, surgery of lymph nodes, and histologic type, with a moderate C-index of 0.737 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.713–0.760) and 0.766 (95% CI: 0.731–0.801) in the development and verification groups, respectively. The areas under the ROC (AUC) of 3- and 5-year OS were 0.749 and 0.770, respectively. While marital status, N/M stage, surgery, surgery of lymph nodes, and histologic type were significantly linked to PC patients’ CSS, which have better C-index of 0.802 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.771–0.833) and 0.82 (95% CI: 0.775–0.865) in the development and verification groups, and the AUC of 3- and 5-year CSS were 0.766 and 0.787. Both of the survival calibration curves of 3- and 5-year OS and CSS brought out a high consistency. Conclusion. Our study produced a satisfactory nomogram revealing the survival of PC patients, which could be helpful for clinicians to assess the situation of PC patients and to implement further treatment.