Areas within the United States at the Highest Risk for African Swine Fever, Classical Swine Fever, and Foot-and-Mouth Disease Introduction

Abstract

Domestic livestock production is a major component of the agricultural sector, contributing to food security and human health and nutrition and serving as the economic livelihood for millions worldwide. The impact of disease on global systems and processes cannot be understated, as illustrated by the effects of the COVID-19 global pandemic through economic and social system shocks and food system disruptions. This study outlines a method to identify the most likely sites of introduction into the United States for three of the most concerning foreign animal diseases: African swine fever (ASF), classical swine fever (CSF), and foot-and-mouth disease (FMD). We first created an index measuring the amount of potentially contaminated meat products entering the regions of interest using the most recently available Agricultural Quarantine Inspection Monitoring (AQIM) air passenger inspection dataset, the AQIM USPS/foreign mail, and the targeted USPS/foreign mail interception datasets. The risk of introduction of a given virus was then estimated using this index, as well as the density of operations of the livestock species and the likelihood of infected material contaminating the local herds. Using the most recently available version of the datasets, the most likely places of introduction for ASF and CSF were identified to be in central Florida, while FMD was estimated to have been most likely introduced to swine in western California and to cattle in northeastern Texas. The method illustrated in this study is important as it may provide insights on risk and can be used to guide surveillance activities and optimize the use of limited resources to combat the establishment of these diseases in the U.S.