The Impact of Lockdown, Patient Classification, and the Large-Scale Case Screening on the Spread of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Hubei

Abstract

The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) which emerged in Wuhan, China, in December 2019, is widely controlled now in China. However, the global epidemic is still severe. To study and comment on Hubei’s approaches for responding to the disease, the paper considered some factors such as suspected cases (part of them are influenza patients or common pneumonia patients, etc.), quarantine, patient classification (three types), clinically diagnosed cases, and lockdown of Wuhan and Hubei. After that, the paper established an $SELIHR$ model based on the surveillance data of Hubei published by the Hubei Health Commission from 10 January 2020 to 30 April 2020 and used the fminsearch optimization method to estimate the optimal parameters of the model. We obtained the basic reproduction number ${\mathcal{R}}_0=3.1571$ from 10 to 22 January. ${\mathcal{R}}_0$ was calculated as 2.0471 from 23 to 27 January. From 28 January to 30 April, ${\mathcal{R}}_0=1.5014$ . Through analysis, it is not hard to find that the patients without classification during the period of confirmed cases will result in the cumulative number of cases in Hubei to increase. In addition, regarding the lockdown measures implemented by Hubei during the epidemic, our simulations also show that if the lockdown time of either Hubei or Wuhan is advanced, it will effectively curb the spread of the epidemic. If the lockdown measures are not taken, the total cumulative number of cases will increase substantially. From the results of the study, it can be concluded that the lockdown, patient classification, and the large-scale case screening are essential to slow the spread of COVID-19, which can provide references for other countries or regions.