Data-Driven Model Predictive Control with Regression Trees—An Application to Building Energy Management

Abstract

Model Predictive Control (MPC) plays an important role in optimizing operations of complex cyber-physical systems because of its ability to forecast system’s behavior and act under system level constraints. However, MPC requires reasonably accurate underlying models of the system. In many applications, such as building control for energy management, Demand Response, or peak power reduction, obtaining a high-fidelity physics-based model is cost and time prohibitive, thus limiting the widespread adoption of MPC. To this end, we propose a data-driven control algorithm for MPC that relies only on the historical data. We use multi-output regression trees to represent the system’s dynamics over multiple future time steps and formulate a finite receding horizon control problem that can be solved in real-time in closed-loop with the physical plant. We apply this algorithm to peak power reduction in buildings to optimally trade-off peak power reduction against thermal comfort without having to learn white/grey box models of the systems dynamics.