ANALYSIS AND FORECAST OF THE EMPLOYEES IN THE PUBLIC AND PRIVATE HEALTH SYSTEMS IN ROMANIA

Abstract

In this paper, a statistical analysis is made of the health personnel in Romania in the public and private systems using data from the period 1990-2022, provided by the National Institute of Statistics. Using the least squares method, analytical functions are found that model the trend and forecasts are made for the years 2023 and 2024. The confidence intervals for the predictions are also found, at a significance threshold of 5%, and the correlations between certain indicators are analysed. It was found that in the public sector there was a downward trend, in general, for all categories of medical personnel in the period 1990-2017, followed by an increasing evolution after 2018, due to salary increases in the system. However, there is still a shortage of physicians in the public sector, even if their number has steadily increased in the last years. There is no correlation between the number of physicians and the number of beds in public hospitals, although this should be positive and high. On the other hand, in the private sector the trend is obviously increasing throughout the studied period, the correlations are very strong between the analysed indicators, a situation explained by the fact that in this system the goal is to minimize expenses and increase profit and less access of all citizens to health services.