Evacuate or social distance? Modeling the influence of threat perceptions on hurricane evacuation in a dual‐threat environment

Author:

Wu Hao‐Che1,Murphy Haley2,Greer Alex3,Clay Lauren4

Affiliation:

1. Department of Emergency Management and Disaster Science University of North Texas Denton Texas USA

2. Fire and Emergency Management Administration Program Oklahoma State University Still Water Oklahoma USA

3. Department of Emergency Management and Homeland Security University at Albany SUNY Albany New York USA

4. Department of Emergency Health Services University of Maryland Baltimore County Baltimore Maryland USA

Abstract

AbstractThis study investigates how different risk predictors influenced households’ evacuation decisions during a dual‐threat event (Hurricane Laura and COVID‐19 pandemic). The Protective Action Decision Model (PADM) literature indicates that perceived threat variables are the most influential variables that drive evacuation decisions. This study applies the PADM to investigate a dual‐threat disaster that has conflicting protective action recommendations. Given the novelty, scale, span, impact, and messaging around COVID‐19, it is crucial to see how hurricanes along the Gulf Coast—a hazard addressed seasonally by residents with mostly consistent protective action messaging—produce different reactions in residents in this pandemic context. Household survey data were collected during early 2021 using a disproportionate stratified sampling procedure to include households located in mandatory and voluntary evacuation areas across the coastal counties in Texas and parishes in Louisiana that were affected by Hurricane Laura. Structural equation modeling was used to identify the relationships between perceived threats and evacuation decisions. The findings suggest affective risk perceptions strongly affected cognitive risk perceptions (CRPs). Notably, hurricane and COVID‐19 CRPs are significant predictors of hurricane evacuation decisions in different ways. Hurricane CRPs encourage evacuation, but COVID‐19 CRPs hinder evacuation decisions.

Funder

National Science Foundation

Publisher

Wiley

Subject

Physiology (medical),Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality

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