A simple model to facilitate fast humanitarian funding

Abstract

AbstractThis article presents a simple regression model to inform decisions on the allocation amount from the United Nations' Central Emergency Response Fund (CERF) in response to new or deteriorating humanitarian emergencies. The model offers a quick and user‐friendly way to summarise historical (2016–24) CERF allocations and to estimate amounts for new allocations. It includes four elements: type of emergency; total funding required for a short‐term humanitarian response; overall humanitarian needs and risks in the country; and the number of people who would receive humanitarian assistance or protection services with a CERF allocation. The model is integrated into CERF's decision‐making process, which considers other factors as well. It provides a check by generating an analytical comparison with almost 380 past allocations. In an external review, the model has been found ‘fit for purpose’. The article concludes with a discussion of other potential uses of the model and how it could be developed.