Plant fitness in a rapidly changing world

Abstract

SummaryModern reliance on fossil fuels has ushered in extreme temperatures globally and abnormal precipitation patterns in many regions. Although the climate is changing rapidly, other agents of natural selection such as photoperiod remain constant. This decoupling of previously reliable environmental cues shifts adaptive landscapes, favors novel suites of traits and likely increases the extinction risk of local populations. Here, I examine the fitness consequences of changing climates. Meta‐analyses demonstrate that simulated future climates depress viability and fecundity components of fitness for native plant species in the short term, which could reduce population growth rates. Contracting populations that cannot adapt or adjust plastically to new climates might not be capable of producing sufficient migrants to track changing conditions. Contents Summary 81 I. Introduction 81 II. Fitness landscapes 82 III. Recommendations for future studies 84 IV. Evolutionary consequences 84 V. Conclusions 85 Acknowledgements 85 References 85