Quantifying exposure of linear infrastructures to earthquake-triggered transverse landslides in permafrost thawing slopes

Abstract

Seismic shaking can cause slope instability in otherwise relatively stable permafrost terrains. In addition, rapid ice melting in low-permeability fine-grained soils can lead to excess pore-water pressure build-up and cause instability in slopes even at small angles. This study addresses the active-layer detachment (ALD) slope instability hazard and develops a systematic risk assessment framework for existing and future linear infrastructures, such as energy pipelines, bridges, and roads traversing permafrost regions. Mild slopes, with average gradient of 7°, are considered in this study as the most representative of actual field conditions. The potential for earthquake-triggered ALD is analytically quantified. State-of-the-art ALD morphological statistics for northern Canada are combined with seismic slope stability analyses to determine (i) the probability of linear infrastructure exposure to permanent ground deformations (PGDs) caused by ALD and (ii) the extent of the potential PGD that the linear infrastructure may be subjected to. The Monte Carlo technique is applied to simulate and assess the sensitivity of the model to parameters such as earthquake magnitude and source-to-site distance. Findings from this study can be used to evaluate the vulnerability of linear infrastructures exposed to the ALD hazard.