Ecological niche modeling on the effect of climatic change and conservation of Ternstroemia lineata DC. (Ternstroemiaceae) in Mesoamerica

Abstract

A bioclimatic modeling of the tree Ternstroemia lineata DC. (Ternstroemiaceae) was undertaken. The genus itself is considered as diagnostic or characteristic of the Mexican cloud forest. Ternstroemia lineata has the broadest distribution of all species in this family in Mexico and northern Central America. This species consists of two subspecies, T. lineata subsp. lineata and T. lineata subsp. chalicophila (Loes.) B.M. Barthol. Ecological niche models for both subspecies were generated using the genetic algorithm for rule-set production method. The ecological models for the years 2020, 2050, and 2080 were obtained under the effects of global climatic change considering two emission scenarios (A2a and B2a). When climatic change values were introduced, the ecological niche representation for both subspecies contracted in such a way that they became almost lost throughout their entire geographical range. In both cases, predictions for all years in both scenarios contracted more than 90%. This species may not be able to adapt to modifications caused by climatic change to future conditions, so it is at risk of extinction in the immediate future.