Quantifying Uncertainty in Production Forecasts: Another Look at the PUNQ-S3 Problem

Abstract

Summary A synthetic reservoir model, known as the PUNQ-S3 case, is used to compare various techniques for quantification of uncertainty in future oil production when historical production data is available. Some results for this case have already been presented in an earlier paper.1 In this paper, we present some additional results for this problem, and also argue an interpretation of the results that is somewhat different from that presented in the earlier paper. The additional results are obtained with the following methods: importance sampling, history matching of multiple models using a pilot-point approach, and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC).