Prostate cancer in Latin America and the Caribbean: mortality trends from 1997 to 2017 and predictions to 2030

Abstract

Objective. To evaluate the mortality rates of prostate cancer in Latin American and the Caribbean (LAC) countries and predict their mortality to 2030. Materials and methods. The data was retrieved from the World Health Organization mortality database. The age-standardized mortality rates for prostate cancer were estimated per 100 000 men between 1997 and 2017 for most LAC countries. The annual percent change was calculated by country and age group. The Nordpred was used to project prostate cancer mortality to 2030. Results. From 1997 to 2017, the countries with the highest mortality rates from prostate cancer were Trinidad and Tobago, Cuba, and Venezuela. For all ages, ten LAC countries presented significant decreases between -0.5 and -2.8%, whereas Brazil, Cuba, Guatemala, and Venezuela showed increases. Mortality by prostate cancer will increase in 2030 due to changes in the structure and size of the population. Conclusion. Despite the decline in prostate cancer mortality rates over the last two decades in most countries in the region, some countries still have very high mortality rates. By 2030, most countries in the region will show overall increases in the number of deaths, mainly due to population size.