Using machine learning models to predict synchronous genitourinary cancers among gastrointestinal stromal tumor patients

Abstract

Objectives: Gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GISTs) can occur synchronously with other neoplasms, including the genitourinary (GU) system. Machine learning (ML) may be a valuable tool in predicting synchronous GU tumors in GIST patients, and thus improving prognosis. This study aims to evaluate the use of ML algorithms to predict synchronous GU tumors among GIST patients in a specialist research center in Saudi Arabia. Materials and Methods: We analyzed data from all patients with histopathologically confirmed GIST at our facility from 2003 to 2020. Patient files were reviewed for the presence of renal cell carcinoma, adrenal tumors, or other GU cancers. Three supervised ML algorithms were used: logistic regression, XGBoost Regressor, and random forests (RFs). A set of variables, including independent attributes, was entered into the models. Results: A total of 170 patients were included in the study, with 58.8% (n = 100) being male. The median age was 57 (range: 9–91) years. The majority of GISTs were gastric (60%, n = 102) with a spindle cell histology. The most common stage at diagnosis was T2 (27.6%, n = 47) and N0 (20%, n = 34). Six patients (3.5%) had synchronous GU tumors. The RF model achieved the highest accuracy with 97.1%. Conclusion: Our study suggests that the RF model is an effective tool for predicting synchronous GU tumors in GIST patients. Larger multicenter studies, utilizing more powerful algorithms such as deep learning and other artificial intelligence subsets, are necessary to further refine and improve these predictions.