Spatial Variation and Factors Associated with Unsuppressed HIV Viral Load among Women in An HIV Hyperendemic Area of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

Abstract

New HIV infections among young women remains exceptionally high and to prevent onward transmission, UNAIDS set ambitious treatment targets. This study aimed to determine the prevalence, spatial variation and factors associated with unsuppressed HIV viral load at ≥400 copies per mL. This study analysed data from women aged 15–49 years from the HIV Incidence Provincial Surveillance System (HIPSS) enrolled in two sequential cross-sectional studies undertaken in 2014 and 2015 in rural and peri-urban KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Bayesian geoadditive model with spatial effect for a small enumeration area was adopted using Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) function to analyze the findings. The overall prevalence of unsuppressed HIV viral load was 45.2% in 2014 and 38.1% in 2015. Factors associated with unsuppressed viral load were no prior knowledge of HIV status, had a moderate-to-low perception of acquiring HIV, not on antiretroviral therapy (ART), and having a low CD4 cell count. In 2014, women who ever consumed alcohol and in 2015, ever ran out of money, had two or more lifetime sexual partners, ever tested for tuberculosis, and ever diagnosed with sexually transmitted infection were at higher risk of being virally unsuppressed. The nonlinear effect showed that women aged 15 to 29 years, from smaller households and had fewer number of lifetime HIV tests, were more likely to be virally unsuppressed. High viral load risk areas were the north-east and south-west in 2014, with north and west in 2015. The findings provide guidance on identifying key populations and areas for targeted interventions.