Development and Validation of a Deep Learning Model for Prediction of Adult Physiological Deterioration

Abstract

BACKGROUND: Prediction-based strategies for physiologic deterioration offer the potential for earlier clinical interventions that improve patient outcomes. Current strategies are limited because they operate on inconsistent definitions of deterioration, attempt to dichotomize a dynamic and progressive phenomenon, and offer poor performance. OBJECTIVE: Can a deep learning deterioration prediction model (Deep Learning Enhanced Triage and Emergency Response for Inpatient Optimization [DETERIO]) based on a consensus definition of deterioration (the Adult Inpatient Decompensation Event [AIDE] criteria) and that approaches deterioration as a state “value-estimation” problem outperform a commercially available deterioration score? DERIVATION COHORT: The derivation cohort contained retrospective patient data collected from both inpatient services (inpatient) and emergency departments (EDs) of two hospitals within the University of California San Diego Health System. There were 330,729 total patients; 71,735 were inpatient and 258,994 were ED. Of these data, 20% were randomly sampled as a retrospective “testing set.” VALIDATION COHORT: The validation cohort contained temporal patient data. There were 65,898 total patients; 13,750 were inpatient and 52,148 were ED. PREDICTION MODEL: DETERIO was developed and validated on these data, using the AIDE criteria to generate a composite score. DETERIO’s architecture builds upon previous work. DETERIO’s prediction performance up to 12 hours before T0 was compared against Epic Deterioration Index (EDI). RESULTS: In the retrospective testing set, DETERIO’s area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was 0.797 and 0.874 for inpatient and ED subsets, respectively. In the temporal validation cohort, the corresponding AUC were 0.775 and 0.856, respectively. DETERIO outperformed EDI in the inpatient validation cohort (AUC, 0.775 vs. 0.721; p < 0.01) while maintaining superior sensitivity and a comparable rate of false alarms (sensitivity, 45.50% vs. 30.00%; positive predictive value, 20.50% vs. 16.11%). CONCLUSIONS: DETERIO demonstrates promise in the viability of a state value-estimation approach for predicting adult physiologic deterioration. It may outperform EDI while offering additional clinical utility in triage and clinician interaction with prediction confidence and explanations. Additional studies are needed to assess generalizability and real-world clinical impact.