Preoperative prediction of microsatellite instability status: development and validation of a pan-cancer PET/CT-based radiomics model

Abstract

Objective The purpose of this study is to verify the feasibility of preoperative prediction of patients’ microsatellite instability status by applying a PET/CT-based radiation model. Methods This retrospective study ultimately included 142 patients. Three prediction models have been developed. The predictive performance of all models was evaluated by the receiver operating characteristic curve and area under the curve values. The PET/CT radiological histology score (Radscore) was calculated to evaluate the microsatellite instability status, and the corresponding nomogram was established. The correlation between clinical factors and radiological characteristics was analyzed to verify the value of radiological characteristics in predicting microsatellite instability status. Results Twelve features were retained to establish a comprehensive prediction model of radiological and clinical features. M phase of the tumor has been proven to be an independent predictor of microsatellite instability status. The receiver operating characteristic results showed that the area under the curve values of the training set and the validation set of the radiomics model were 0.82 and 0.75, respectively. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of the training set were 0.72, 0.78, 0.83 and 0.66, respectively. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of the validation set were 1.00, 0.50, 0.76 and 1.00, respectively. The risk of patients with microsatellite instability was calculated by Radscore and nomograph, and the cutoff value was −0.4385. The validity of the results was confirmed by the decision and calibration curves. Conclusion Radiological models based on PET/CT can provide clinical and practical noninvasive prediction of microsatellite instability status of several different cancer types, reducing or avoiding unnecessary biopsy to a certain extent.