Factors Predicting the Development of Necrosis in Patients Presenting With Edematous Acute Pancreatitis

Abstract

Objectives There is no marker that can accurately predict the development of pancreatic necrosis in edematous acute pancreatitis (AP). This study aimed to investigate the factors associated with necrosis development in cases of edematous AP and to create an easy-to-use scoring system. Methods We retrospectively reviewed patients diagnosed with edematous AP between 2010 and 2021. Among the patients, those who were found to have developed necrosis during follow-up were categorized as the necrotizing group, whereas the others constituted the edematous group. Results With multivariate analysis, white blood cell, hematocrit, lactate dehydrogenase, and C-reactive protein levels at the 48th hour were revealed to be independent risk factors for necrosis. Using these 4 independent predictors, the Necrosis Development Score 48 (NDS-48) was derived. While the cutoff value was 2.5, the sensitivity and specificity of the NDS-48 for necrosis were 92.5% and 85.9%, respectively. The area under the curve value of the NDS-48 for necrosis was 0.949 (95% confidence interval, 0.920–0.977). Conclusions White blood cell, hematocrit, lactate dehydrogenase, and C-reactive protein levels at the 48th hour are independent predictors of necrosis development. The NDS-48, a new scoring system created with these 4 predictors, satisfactorily predicted the development of necrosis.