Can a Nomogram Predict Survival After Treatment for an Ankylosing Spondylitis Cervical Fracture in a Patient With Neurologic Impairment? A National, Multicenter Study

Abstract

Abstract Background Ankylosing spondylitis–related cervical spine fracture with neurologic impairment (ASCF-NI) is a rare but often lethal injury. Factors independently associated with survival after treatment remain poorly defined, and identifying patients who are likely to survive the injury remains challenging. Questions/purposes (1) What factors are independently associated with survival after treatment among patients with ASCF-NI? (2) Can a nomogram be developed that is sufficiently simple for clinicians to use that can identify patients who are the most likely to survive after injury? Methods This retrospective study was conducted based on a multi-institutional group of patients admitted and treated at one of 29 tertiary hospitals in China between March 1, 2003, and July 31, 2019. A total of 363 patients with a mean age of 53 ± 12 years were eventually included, 343 of whom were male. According to the National Household Registration Management System, 17% (61 of 363) died within 5 years of injury. Patients were treated using nonsurgical treatment or surgery, including procedures using the anterior approach, posterior approach, or combined anterior and posterior approaches. Indications for surgery included three-column injury, unstable fracture displacement, neurologic impairment or continuous progress, and intervertebral disc incarceration. By contrast, patients generally received nonsurgical treatment when they had a relatively stable fracture or medical conditions that did not tolerate surgery. Demographic, clinical, and treatment data were collected. The primary study goal was to identify which factors are independently associated with death within 5 years of injury, and the secondary goal was the development of a clinically applicable nomogram. We developed a multivariable Cox hazards regression model, and independent risk factors were defined by backward stepwise selection with the Akaike information criterion. We used these factors to create a nomogram using a multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analysis. Results After controlling for potentially confounding variables, we found the following factors were independently associated with a lower likelihood of survival after injury: lower fracture site, more-severe peri-injury complications, poorer American Spinal Injury Association (ASIA) Impairment Scale, and treatment methods. We found that a C5 to C7 or T1 fracture (ref: C1 to C4 and 5; hazard ratio 1.7 [95% confidence interval 0.9 to 3.5]; p = 0.12), moderate peri-injury complications (ref: absence of or mild complications; HR 6.0 [95% CI 2.3 to 16.0]; p < 0.001), severe peri-injury complications (ref: absence of or mild complications; HR 30.0 [95% CI 11.5 to 78.3]; p < 0.001), ASIA Grade A (ref: ASIA Grade D; HR 2.8 [95% CI 1.1 to 7.0]; p = 0.03), anterior approach (ref: nonsurgical treatment; HR 0.5 [95% CI 0.2 to 1.0]; p = 0.04), posterior approach (ref: nonsurgical treatment; HR 0.4 [95% CI 0.2 to 0.8]; p = 0.006), and combined anterior and posterior approach (ref: nonsurgical treatment; HR 0.4 [95% CI 0.2 to 0.9]; p = 0.02) were associated with survival. Based on these factors, a nomogram was developed to predict the survival of patients with ASCF-NI after treatment. Tests revealed that the developed nomogram had good performance (C statistic of 0.91). Conclusion The nomogram developed in this study will allow us to classify patients with different mortality risk levels into groups. This, coupled with the factors we identified, was independently associated with survival, and can be used to guide more appropriate treatment and care strategies for patients with ASCF-NI. Level of Evidence Level III, therapeutic study