A practical nomogram included hyperlipidemia for predicting lymph node metastasis in patients with superficial esophageal squamous cell carcinoma

Abstract

To select an optimal treatment, it is crucial to evaluate the risk of lymph node metastasis (LNM) in patients with superficial esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (SESCC). The research aimed to explore more risk factors than before and construct a practical nomogram to predict LNM in patients with SESCC. We retrospectively reviewed 1080 patients diagnosed with esophageal cancer who underwent esophagectomy with lymphadenectomy between January 2013 and October 2021 at the Affiliated Hospital of Qingdao University. The clinical parameters, endoscopic features, and pathological characteristics of the 123 patients that were finally enrolled in this study were collected. The independent risk factors for LNM were determined using univariate and multivariate analyses. Using these factors, a nomogram was constructed to predict LNM. LNM was observed in 21 patients. Univariate analysis showed that the absence or presence of hypertriglyceridemia, tumor location, lesion size, macroscopic type, invasion depth, differentiation, absence or presence of lymphovascular invasion (LVI), and perineural invasion were significantly associated with LNM. According to the multivariate analysis, hypertriglyceridemia, tumors located in the lower thoracic esophagus, lesion size > 20 mm, submucosal invasion, and LVI were independent risk factors for LNM. A nomogram was established using these 5 factors. It showed good calibration and discrimination. Hypertriglyceridemia, tumors located in the lower thoracic esophagus, lesion size > 20 mm, submucosal invasion, and LVI were independent risk factors for LNM. A nomogram was constructed using these 5 factors. This model can help clinicians assess the risk of LNM in patients with SESCC for optimal treatment selection.