A novel nomogram for predicting risk of hypertension in US adults with periodontitis: National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2009–2014

Abstract

The goal of our study was to create a nomogram to predict the risk of developing hypertension in patients with periodontitis. Our study used data from a total of 3196 subjects from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2009 to 2014 who had ever been diagnosed with periodontitis. The data set was randomly divided into a training set and a validation set according to a 7:3 ratio. The data from the training set was utilized to build the prediction model, while the validation set were used to validate the model. To identify the risk variables, stepwise regression was used to perform successive univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis. The predictive ability of the nomogram model was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic curve. Calibration plots were used to assess the consistency of the prediction model. The clinical value of the model was evaluated using decision curve analysis and clinical impact curve. A nomogram for the risk of hypertension in subjects with periodontitis was constructed in accordance with the 8 predictors identified in this study. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve values for the training set and validation set were 0.922 (95% confidence interval: 0.911–0.933) and 0.918 (95% confidence interval: 0.900–0.935), respectively, indicating excellent discrimination. The decision curve analysis and clinical impact curve suggested that the model has significant clinical applications, and the calibration plots of the training set and validation set demonstrated good consistency. The nomogram can effectively predict the risk of hypertension in patients with periodontitis and help clinicians make better clinical decisions.