Epidemiology beyond its limits

Author:

McCullough Lauren E.1ORCID,Maliniak Maret L.1ORCID,Amin Avnika B.1ORCID,Baker Julia M.1ORCID,Baliashvili Davit1ORCID,Barberio Julie1ORCID,Barrera Chloe M.1ORCID,Brown Carolyn A.2ORCID,Collin Lindsay J.3ORCID,Freedman Alexa A.4ORCID,Gibbs David C.1ORCID,Haddad Maryam B.1ORCID,Hall Eric W.5ORCID,Hamid Sarah1ORCID,Harrington Kristin R. V.1ORCID,Holleman Aaron M.1,Kaufman John A.1ORCID,Khan Mohammed A.1,Labgold Katie1ORCID,Lee Veronica C.1,Malik Amyn A.6ORCID,Mann Laura M.1ORCID,Marks Kristin J.1ORCID,Nelson Kristin N.1,Quader Zerleen S.1ORCID,Ross-Driscoll Katherine7,Sarkar Supriya8ORCID,Shah Monica P.1,Shao Iris Y.1ORCID,Smith Jonathan P.9ORCID,Stanhope Kaitlyn K.10ORCID,Valenzuela-Lara Marisol1,Van Dyke Miriam E.1,Vyas Kartavya J.1,Lash Timothy L.1ORCID

Affiliation:

1. Department of Epidemiology, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA.

2. Amgen Inc., Thousand Oaks, CA, USA.

3. Department of Population Health Sciences, Huntsman Cancer Institute, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT, USA.

4. Institute for Policy Research, Northwestern University, Evanston, IL, USA.

5. School of Public Health, Oregon Health & Science University, Portland, OR, USA.

6. Yale Institute for Global Health, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA.

7. Department of Surgery, Emory University School of Medicine, Atlanta, GA, USA.

8. ViiV Healthcare, Research Triangle Park, NC, USA.

9. Department of Health Policy and Management, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA.

10. Department of Gynecology and Obstetrics, Emory University School of Medicine, Atlanta, GA, USA.

Abstract

In 1995, journalist Gary Taubes published an article in Science titled “Epidemiology faces its limits,” which questioned the utility of nonrandomized epidemiologic research and has since been cited more than 1000 times. He highlighted numerous examples of research topics he viewed as having questionable merit. Studies have since accumulated for these associations. We systematically evaluated current evidence of 53 example associations discussed in the article. Approximately one-quarter of those presented as doubtful are now widely viewed as causal based on current evaluations of the public health consensus. They include associations between alcohol consumption and breast cancer, residential radon exposure and lung cancer, and the use of tanning devices and melanoma. This history should inform current debates about the reproducibility of epidemiologic research results.

Publisher

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)

Subject

Multidisciplinary

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