Changes in contact patterns shape the dynamics of the COVID-19 outbreak in China-Reference-Cited by-同舟云学术

Changes in contact patterns shape the dynamics of the COVID-19 outbreak in China

Published:2020-06-26 Issue:6498 Volume:368 Page:1481-1486
ISSN:0036-8075
Container-title:Science
language:en
Short-container-title:Science

Author:

Zhang Juanjuan¹^ORCID,Litvinova Maria²^ORCID,Liang Yuxia¹^ORCID,Wang Yan¹,Wang Wei¹,Zhao Shanlu³,Wu Qianhui¹,Merler Stefano⁴,Viboud Cécile⁵^ORCID,Vespignani Alessandro²⁶^ORCID,Ajelli Marco⁴^ORCID,Yu Hongjie¹^ORCID

Affiliation:

1. School of Public Health, Fudan University, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education, Shanghai, China.

2. ISI Foundation, Turin, Italy.

3. Hunan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Changsha, China.

4. Bruno Kessler Foundation, Trento, Italy.

5. Division of International Epidemiology and Population Studies, Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA.

6. Laboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systems, Northeastern University, Boston, MA, USA.

Abstract

Who and what next? The coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has brought tighter restrictions on the daily lives of millions of people, but we do not yet understand what measures are the most effective. Zhang et al. modeled virus transmission in Wuhan, China, in February 2020, investigating the effects of interventions ranging from patient management to social isolation. Age-mixing patterns were estimated by contact surveys conducted in Wuhan and Shanghai at the beginning of February 2020. Once people reduced their average daily contacts from 14 to 20 down to 2, transmission rapidly fell below the epidemic threshold. The model also showed that preemptive school closures helped to reduce transmission, although alone they would not prevent a COVID-19 outbreak. Limiting human mixing to within households appeared to be the most effective measure. Science , this issue p. 1481

Funder

National Science and Technology Major Project of China

National Science Fund for Distinguished Young Scholars

Key Emergency Project of Shanghai Science and Technology Committee

European Commission H2020 MOOD project

Publisher

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)

Subject

Multidisciplinary

Reference41 articles.

1. Johns Hopkins University COVID-19 Dashboard (2020); https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html [accessed 16 April 2020].

2. Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention Update on COVID-19 as of 24:00 on April 16 2020 (2020); http://2019ncov.chinacdc.cn/2019-nCoV/ [accessed 17 April 2020].

3. Evolving epidemiology and transmission dynamics of coronavirus disease 2019 outside Hubei province, China: a descriptive and modelling study

4. The Epidemiological Characteristics of an Outbreak of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Diseases (COVID-19) — China, 2020

5. Social Contacts and Mixing Patterns Relevant to the Spread of Infectious Diseases

Cited by 893 articles. 订阅此论文施引文献订阅此论文施引文献，注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献，订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献

1. Characterizing collective physical distancing in the U.S. during the first nine months of the COVID-19 pandemic;PLOS Digital Health;2024-02-06

2. The impacts of spatial–temporal heterogeneity of human-to-human contacts on the extinction probability of infectious disease from branching process model;Journal of Theoretical Biology;2024-02

3. Optimal adaptive testing for epidemic control: Combining molecular and serology tests;Automatica;2024-02

4. Size isn’t everything: COVID-19 and the role of government;Public Choice;2024-01-13

5. COVID-19's death transfer to Sub-Saharan Africa;Social Science & Medicine;2024-01