Twin peaks: The Omicron SARS-CoV-2 BA.1 and BA.2 epidemics in England

Author:

Elliott Paul12345ORCID,Eales Oliver16ORCID,Steyn Nicholas78ORCID,Tang David12ORCID,Bodinier Barbara12ORCID,Wang Haowei16ORCID,Elliott Joshua39ORCID,Whitaker Matthew12ORCID,Atchison Christina13ORCID,Diggle Peter J.10ORCID,Page Andrew J.11ORCID,Trotter Alexander J.11ORCID,Ashby Deborah1ORCID,Barclay Wendy9ORCID,Taylor Graham9ORCID,Ward Helen1346ORCID,Darzi Ara3412ORCID,Cooke Graham S.349ORCID,Donnelly Christl A.167ORCID,Chadeau-Hyam Marc12ORCID

Affiliation:

1. School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.

2. MRC Centre for Environment and Health, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.

3. Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust, London, UK.

4. National Institute for Health Research Imperial Biomedical Research Centre, London, UK.

5. Health Data Research (HDR) UK, Imperial College London, London, UK.

6. MRC Centre for Global infectious Disease Analysis and Jameel Institute, Imperial College London, London, UK.

7. Department of Statistics, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.

8. Department of Mathematics, Imperial College London, London, UK.

9. Department of Infectious Disease, Imperial College London, London, UK.

10. CHICAS, Lancaster Medical School, Lancaster University, UK, and Health Data Research, Lancaster, UK.

11. Quadram Institute, Norwich, UK.

12. Institute of Global Health Innovation, Imperial College London, London, UK.

Abstract

Rapid transmission of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Omicron variant has led to record-breaking incidence rates around the world. The Real-time Assessment of Community Transmission-1 (REACT-1) study has tracked SARS-CoV-2 infection in England using reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) results from self-administered throat and nose swabs from randomly selected participants aged 5 years and older approximately monthly from May 2020 to March 2022. Weighted prevalence in March 2022 was the highest recorded in REACT-1 at 6.37% ( N = 109,181), with the Omicron BA.2 variant largely replacing the BA.1 variant. Prevalence was increasing overall, with the greatest increase in those aged 65 to 74 years and 75 years and older. This was associated with increased hospitalizations and deaths, but at much lower levels than in previous waves against a backdrop of high levels of vaccination.

Publisher

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)

Subject

Multidisciplinary

Reference59 articles.

1. Rapid increase in Omicron infections in England during December 2021: REACT-1 study

2. UK Health Security Agency “SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and variants under investigation in England: Technical briefing 33” (UK Health Security Agency 2021); https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1043680/technical-briefing-33.pdf.

3. P. Elliott O. Eales B. Bodinier D. Tang H. Wang J. Jonnerby D. Haw J. Elliott M. Whitaker C. E. Walters C. Atchison P. J. Diggle A. J. Page A. J. Trotter D. Ashby W. Barclay G. Taylor H. Ward A. Darzi G. S. Cooke M. Chadeau-Hyam C. A. Donnelly Post-peak dynamics of a national Omicron SARS-CoV-2 epidemic during January 2022. medRxiv

4. 2022.02.03.22270365 [Preprint] (2022)

5. 10.1101/2022.02.03.22270365 2022.02.03.22270365

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